Investors got a chance this week to weigh in on the government's odds of recouping the full $182 billion bailout of American International Group Inc.

The response so far: Don't count on it.

AIG shares skidded as much as 7 percent Wednesday, a day after the U.S. government sold a chunk of its stake in AIG. The stock recovered some of its losses, closing down 4 percent to $28.28. But it still trails the $28.73 average price the government needs to break even on the bailout.

By offering 200 million shares at $29 each, experts say, the government misread the market's appetite for AIG. After Wednesday's price swoon, they say, it might have to delay future offerings of AIG stock.

And taxpayers might have to give up on breaking even.

"Treasury clearly wants to get out, and at some point I think exiting is more important than hitting a target price," said Clifford Gallant, an analyst at KBW Inc.

AIG received the biggest bailout during the financial crisis because it couldn't meet its financial obligations to the world's biggest banks. AIG sold the banks insurance-like contracts to cover losses on mortgage bonds. Once the housing bubble burst and the bonds lost value, AIG couldn't pay up. If AIG failed, officials said, the banks would follow.

Since then, government and AIG officials have been working to settle AIG's obligations, sell business units and repay its bailout money.