There's little argument that this week's election and Fed meeting are hugely important for the direction of the market. But what happens next? As the lyric went in the 1970s song, "There's got to be a morning after." And for the markets and the economy, the mid-term elections and monetary easing decision from the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee will come and go, leading to a morning after and decisions to be made. Some market pros already have their eyes on a fresh set of challenges that will arise once the Republicans stage their likely landslide and the Fed starts printing money again. "Unlike what happened in the soft-patches of the mid-1980s and again in the mid-1990s, the economy today is just a shock away-even negative fiscal shocks-from slipping back into contraction mode," warned David Rosenberg, economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff in Toronto, in his daily note. Here is a fast list of five factors that will influence the market ahead: 1. A Trade War In addition to aiming at getting more money flowing in the economy, the Fed's aggressive quantitative easing (QE) policies have hammered at the dollar and riled up some US trading partners. Another round of QE isn't likely to sit well with those tiring of ballooning US debt and the nation's attempts to keep its exports cheap by weakening its currency.
"The risk that the markets are not fully appreciating is what happens if the Fed becomes very aggressive and heavy asset purchases cause further weakness in the U.S. dollar, which then touches off a currency war ...followed by a trade war?" Rosenberg asked. "The case for gold as a hedge against this more-than-remote possibility is pretty strong."
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